Championship Game Picks

Pittsburgh over Denver and Carolina over Seattle.

With that said, I'd also like to pick the NFL Officials, who also will no doubt play a role in victory on Sunday. Pittsburgh and Carolina might be the better teams in the title games, might play better, and might even do more to win, But the zebras and their flying yellow hankies have asserted their power, and I'm picking them as well.

In true blogger form, I'd also like to advertise a new show on ESPN Classic, "Classic Now." The entire premise of the show is looking at everything in sports in a historical perspective, opposed to the tedious and pointless minutiae that cloud up day-in and day-out headlines during an average sports week. Recent favorites from last week were the "Bears are over-hyped" headline, after Bear lineman Adewale Ogunleye said he was "not downplaying Carolina, but up-playing Chicago," and the hoopla about Tiki Barber's "we were out-coached," comment. Both of those stories will be hotly debated until the end of time.

So if you want a break and enjoy retrospection and celebrating excellence, along with fantastic bar-arguments about "who was better," and "what would happen if," then check out "Classic Now." I will now retire from my career in advertising and promptly take a shower. Nonetheless, the show has inspired many theoretical discussions, and in the future I will be running all-time tournaments for many hypothetical games, including:

All-Time NFL Tournament
All-Time NCAA Tournament
All-Time NBA Tournament

There are many more, and the rules and makeup are quite fun. Let the debate ensue (soon).

After Further Review: NFL Officials should be flagged for Game Misconduct

After this weekend’s disastrous and embarrassing officiating display, I planned on using this space to catalogue all of the weekend’s erroneous calls, but awoke Monday to find that someone else – Kevin Hench at FoxSports.com – had beaten me to it. Check out Hench’s summary of the atrocious rulings from this weekend:

http://foxsports.foxnews.com/nfl/story/5251620

The league even issued an apology to Pittsburgh for overturning Troy Polamalu’s interception. While Hench included most of the mistakes by the zebras, he excluded one of the most staggering and revealing.

In the second half, with the Patriots driving the ball deep into Denver territory (yet again), linebacker Al Wilson began to walk to the sideline for a substitution out of confusion and exhaustion as New England went to quickly hike the ball. A whistle quickly sounded and play was stopped for Wilson, who was apparently deemed an injured player, and thus the stoppage of play. Wilson slumped to the ground and lifted his helmet in complete fatigue. But when the clock was restarted, after Wilson and the Broncos defense was allowed a nice rest period to regroup, the Broncos were NOT charged with a timeout.

The NFL rules on the NFL.com website state, “The Referee will allow necessary time to attend to an injured player, or repair a legal player’s equipment.”

It doesn’t say anything about an official stopping the game because he notices a defensive player, on a struggling defense, is a little tired.

A play like that doesn’t prove some vast conspiracy theory (what would that be anyway, that the league finds it boring to have a dynasty?), but it does illustrate how lost and incompetent the officiating crews can be in a hostile environment. When they show the play clock in the corner of the screen and it’s violently shaking up and down from the noise, apparently, that’s what the game looks like through the eyes of the officials.

So when the closest call of the weekend was determined - Champ Bailey‘s goaline fumble – no wonder the zebras ruled in favor of the home team both on the field and on replay. On CBS, Phil Simms suggested using logic – a four letter word in NFL officiating circles – to determine if the ball traveled over the pylon by seeing where it was fumbled and where it landed. But the NFL doesn’t apply logic; they use “indisputable visual evidence.”

. After carefully studying multiple frames and camera shots of the fumble, we can deduce – through logic, intuition, trigonometry, and plain eyesight – that the ball had to have passed over at least part of the pylon, which is a touchback. The only way the ball could have gone out at the 1 yard line – where it was spotted and subsequently upheld, Polamalu style – was if Bailey fumbled at around the 3, and the ball jettisoned out at an angle greater than 45 degrees (the ball was in his right hand). With replay – yes replay – it’s easy to see that’s not even close to what happened. The ball would have to travel at a near 90 degree angle, through or over Bailey’s body, for it to be placed where it was. Don’t forget, an NFL football is 12 inches long – one-third of a yard – and only a micro-fraction of the ball has to pass over the pylon for it to be a touchback.

I’m throwing my red flag: the NFL desperately needs to climb under the hood and review its replay system.

The Replay System

What’s even more vexing is that on Sunday, in Chicago, a similar play occurred, only this time the officials (specifically the two referees who were within a few yards of the play) ruled in the exact opposite manner of the Bailey fumble, even though the call they made was physically impossible given what happened. Not surprisingly, the call was a touchdown in favor of the home team, Chicago.

Thomas Jones was headed for the corner of the endzone when he was hit out of bounds. He dove and fumbled/threw the ball toward the orange marker as he extended his arm. Jones lost the ball at around the one and a half yard line, and the pigskin knocked over the pylon. After conferring, the officials deemed the play a touchdown. This, of course, is a touchback, and it’s impossible to have a touchdown when the ball hits the pylon, and the player who last possessed the ball is over 3 feet from the pylon. Thankfully, the play was reviewed and correctly ruled a touchback, but in all likelihood if the ball didn’t crash into the marker, it would have been ruled out of bounds and suffered the same fate as the call the day before. Apparently, indisputable visual evidence for a touchback must constitute the ball actually hitting the pylon, unless of course Troy Polamalu is involved.

These are events that everyone sitting at home can easily see, and replays only confirm what their eyes original conveyed to them. A friend of mine was watching the game with two Broncos fans, who both thought in real-time and on replay that the Bailey fumble was a touchback. So why couldn’t seven trained professionals whose only function is to correctly enforce such rules see the same thing, with the benefit of replay?

This has been a recurring theme in the NFL all season, and it’s embarrassing for a multi-trillion industry with so much technology at its fingertips to have such a poor replay system. The red flags. Losing a timeout. Going under the hood. Acts common to the game. It all sounds like an amusing children’s playground game.

Tampa Bay was essentially awarded not one, but two victories this year. On the last play of an early season game against the Lions, Roy Williams clearly caught a touchdown pass sliding out of the endzone. After looking at the replay, officials ruled it incomplete. Why? Possibly the three-and-a-half hours of running around, and listening to insane Tampa fans scream and heckle as they squinted at a field-side monitor for 90 seconds probably had something to do with it. History repeated itself a few weeks later against Washington, as Mike Alstott fell short of the endzone going for a winning 2 point conversion, but because you could only see his arm fall short of the goaline, and not the actual ball, the officials upheld the call on replay, even though the same replay confirmed that Alstott had the ball in his left hand, before the view of the ball was obstructed by other players, and that same left arm clanked down short of the goaline when he was tackled.

Since it’s so easy for fans and broadcasters to see a play, with the benefit of multiple vantage points and replays, why can’t the NFL adopt a replay system that is just as simple? Everything should be reviewable – penalties included – since the entire point of replay is to enforce the rules correctly. Dispose of the long delay to review plays on the field, and hire two or three replay officials to watch the game in the both, utilizing both the TV angle of a play and the live view looking down on the field. Quarterbacks have audio feeds in their helmets to communicate with coaches; the officials on the field should have earpieces so they can be in constant communication with the replay officials. With this system in place, it would have taken no more than 30 seconds – less the length of the play clock – for the replay official to tell the head referee that Asante Samuel didn’t interfere with Ashley Lelie, and that there was a false start on the Bronco field goal. Why force a disoriented tired middle-aged man to hastily look at a close play when a rested and relaxed individual could perform the same task in the confines of a box in a leather chair?

Patriot Games

Tuesday morning on his ESPNradio show, Dan Patrick wondered in amazement, “what if Pittsburgh had lost to Indianapolis this weekend because of that interception call?”

Patrick was referring to the Troy Polamalu interception late in the game that seemingly clinched the victory for Pittsburgh, only to have the call overturned in the most mind-boggling, “what-film-did-he-watch” reversal in NFL history. Patrick resurrected a World War II era game between Dartmouth and Cornell, where Cornell forfeited a win after discovering they won the game on a fifth down touchdown pass.

So, would Indianapolis have forfeited the win? As Mike Wilbon observed on ESPN’s “Pardon the Interruption,” “If Pittsburgh had lost because of that call, it would have been unthinkable.” What would have happened?

Well, it did happen. Only the travesty transpired on Saturday night, not Sunday morning.

And the NFL hasn’t even acknowledged it.

As Mike Greenberg bombastically declared, “I hate the Patriots, but they got the game absolutely ripped away from them by the officials.”

The same pundits who wonder what would have been done if Pittsburgh had lost because of that one key call against them on Sunday, must have been sleeping on Saturday night, when the Patriots had at least three huge calls, resulting in 17 direct points, decide the game.

Yet there are still those who say that if Pittsburgh had lost it would have been by their own doing, after all, Jerome Bettis fumbled and they let the Colts drive down the field. They say the Patriots loss had nothing to do with the officiating because the Pats turned the ball over five times and the unflappable Adam Vinatieri missed a key field goal. There are two serious flaws in that logic:

1. Denver was handed 17 points in a game where they scored 27. That’s 63% of their offense from bogus officiating, which is unheard of in any sport. Could you imagine one bad foul call resulting in 63 free throws in an NBA finals game? Or a single hooking call resulting in four consecutive penalty shots in the Stanley Cup Finals? Most fans will blame a single controversial call (i.e. USA-USSR in basketball at the 72’ Olympics, the Polamalu interception) and understand that if the game was close, it can be decided by a single call. An Ivy League school like Cornell forfeits games based on one faulty ruling. This game had three horrendous calls directly resulting in 63% of the team’s scoring.

Let’s say a presidential candidate campaigned and campaigned until he had the vote of 63% of the country. Due to poor ballot “officiating,” he lost 15% his vote, and thus lost the election. Would we then place the blame on the candidate for not securing more votes, or would the election be described as “rigged,” “fixed,” and “stolen?” Elections have been contested in the Supreme Court over a discrepancy of les than one percent.

2. Yes, the Patriots hurt themselves with some horribly uncharacteristic errors, but most of those mistakes occurred after the calls, and complimentary Denver points, started piling up against them. It’s impossible to overlook the chronology of these events. They were in a hostile environment, against a good team, in a game they knew was difficult, and every step they took up the mountain an official in stripes shoved them back down. New England only had one turnover before the phantom pass interference call. That call changed the momentum of the game, as Denver had absolutely nothing going offensively, and was handed 7 points. The Pats then fumbled a kickoff that shouldn’t have occurred, and it most likely should have resulted in a punt (after an offsides on the field goal was ignored). Their two final turnovers were a direct result of desperation because of the score: Troy Brown had to hurry back to fair catch a ball after a feigned punt block, and Tom Brady forced a 60 yard pass because the Patriots were running out of clock.

Even after all of what happened, and the mistakes New England made, could you imagine how absolutely broken Denver would have been if the Pats had been awarded the ball at the 20 yard line after the Champ Bailey fumble? The Denver defense was exhausted, and the Pats were moving the ball well, while Denver had done little offensively. From Asante Samuel’s interception to Champ Bailey’s interception, New England had thoroughly dominated the Broncos, out gaining them in yardage 259 to 61. It would have remained 10-6, and would have given New England new life, after what seemed like a backbreaker. Ben Watson would have been an instant legend on that Patriots sideline, and the collective mood wouldn’t have been “we a dodged bullet,” but “we dodged Little Boy and Fat Man.”

Just how much does the game change when a call is made correctly? After the Asante Samuels interception was correctly overturned (it was mysteriously ruled incomplete by an official staring right at him 5 yards away), the New England offense, which had been dormant, exploded. The Denver offense, which had started to move the ball, stopped. For the ensuing two quarters, New England absolutely destroyed Denver (sans bad calls and turnovers), racking up 357 yards to 77. 357 yards in two quarters of football is a thrashing of epic proportions. Apologies to the Broncos, who are a formidable team, but there was little doubt that the better team lost on Saturday.

Yet the majority of the officiating criticism has been directed toward one call in Indianapolis that almost cost Pittsburgh the game, but didn’t. The phony game that Denver had handed to them has seemingly been overlooked, and we will forever be left wondering “what if” about the Patriots opportunity to win an unprecedented third consecutive championship. Patriot fans have been awaiting a loss in the playoffs for years; they just didn’t expect the game to be stolen from them.

So, what would happen if bad calls cost an NFL team a playoff game? After further review, it seems everyone has an answer:

Nothing.

The Real NFL MVP

What has happened to the Most Valuable Player award? First Alex Rodriguez was comically awarded baseball’s MVP, and now Shawn Alexander in the NFL. Who are these individuals voting for the MVP, and how many hanging chads were involved? I demand an Al Gore-recount.

For those unaware of the concept of the MVP, it is an annual award given to the most valuable player of a given league during the course of the season. The MVP isn't the most talented or spectacular, the star with the sexiest stat line, the fantasy stud, the best looking or the most charming. It’s the most valuable. In other words, it’s the player who brings the most to his team, who, without said player, the team’s accomplishments would be significantly diminished. This individual is so imperative, if you replaced him with any other player in the world, the team would not be as successful. That is an MVP.

Clearly, Alex Rodriguez should not even qualify – he’s too busy trying to win a fantasy MVP. How can a hitter be a league MVP when he isn’t even one of the three most valuable or feared hitters on his own team – behind Jeter, Sheffield and Matsui – and is an automatic out in the clutch?

And now Shawn Alexander has been erroneously selected as football’s most valuable commodity. Granted, Alexander had a legendary statistical season in the Pacific Northwest, breaking Priest Holmes’ record for touchdowns in a season with 28, boasting an awesome 5.1 yards per carry, and racking up an impressive 1,880 yards (9th most in history).

But Seattle played eight games against atrocious teams that will all be picking at the top of April’s draft: St. Louis, Arizona, San Francisco, Tennessee and Houston. USC – ahem, excuse me, Texas, could have gone 8-0 against that schedule (the combined winning percentage of those teams is an impressive .263). Alexander played another game against Indianapolis’ reserves in week 16. In those nine contests, he racked up 1,272 yards and 21 touchdowns. That means Alexander averaged about 87 yards, 3.97 yards per carry, and a touchdown in his other seven games against average opponents or better. Now that’s the stuff of legends.

Statistics aside, Alexander isn’t even one of the five most valuable players in the league. If he were replaced by any other top flight running back – Tiki Barber or Larry Johnson – clearly the Seahawks still would have won 12 or 13 games, and be in the exact same position. He had nothing to do with a close loss against Washington in week 4 (Kris Brown missed a 47 yard field goal), and had nothing to do with the Dallas meltdown in week 7 (Matt Hasselbeck led the game-tying drive, Kris Brown made the game winning field goal). He certainly didn’t cause the Giants’ Jay Feeley to miss all those potential game-winning field goals in week 12. The rest of the Seahawks games weren’t really close. Insert any other elite runner in the backfield with pro-bowl QB Matt Hasselbeck – LaDanian Tomlinson, Clinton Portis, Edgerrin James, or even Rudi Johnson – and Seattle loses very little. Yes, they lose something, and aren’t quite as good, but it’s not much. That doesn’t sound like an MVP.

So who is the real MVP of the league? An excellent case could be made for the Bears’ Brian Urlacher – Chicago was 0-7 without him last season, and 11-5 this year. Peyton Manning was also a viable choice – the Colts finished with the league’s best record, and Manning was unarguably the driving force behind Indy’s no-huddle controlled dominance of almost every contest. I can’t think of anyone who could realistically replace either of those players and be equally successful. But, the Bears defense was good enough that perhaps any star middle linebacker in place of Urlacher could have won the division. Any other top 10 quarterback would have easily made the playoffs with Tony Dungy, Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne and the NFL’s all-time leader in yards from scrimmage per game, Edgerrin James.

There was only one person this season who was absolutely irreplaceable, and it can be said with utmost certainty that without his presence his team wouldn’t have even been close to the playoffs.

Thomas Edward Brady, Jr.

Tom Brady was the most valuable player of the NFL, and it wasn’t even close. Even the great Peyton Manning couldn’t have saved the New England Patriots from crumbling this year. Thanks to Brady, New England is now standing strong in January, two games away from another Super Bowl.

For most of the year, Tom Brady was the Patriots. New England started a mind-boggling 46 different players this season, and by mid-season the Pats were picking ushers out of the stands and plugging them into their fractured secondary. They played a murder’s row schedule in the season’s first half – the “anti-Seattle” schedule – including at Carolina, at Pittsburgh, San Diego, at Atlanta, at Denver, and Indianapolis. They did all this without defensive stars and captains Rodney Harrison and Teddy Bruschi. One of the game’s best defensive players, Richard Seymour, missed four games in the stretch. Pro-bowl running back Corey Dillon was injured and played sparingly. New England was adjusting to life without longtime coordinators Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennel. Tom Brady simply threw his teammates on his back, did his best Magnus Ver Magnusson impersonation, and carried the Patriots all by his lonesome.

In week 3 at Pittsburgh, Brady was a ridiculous 31-41 for 372 yards, and was a perfect 12-12 in the fourth quarter, leading the Patriots on a game-winning drive in the final 1:21.

In week 5, Brady refused to lose again. He passed for 350 yards and 3 touchdowns in Atlanta, including another winning drive in the final minutes.

In week 10 at Miami, he did it one more time. Trailing 16-15 with 2:53 left, it took Brady 36 seconds to retake the lead with a 17 yard touchdown pass to Ben Watson.

Brady finished first in the NFL in yards with 4,110 and third in passing TDs with 26. And he did it all with a new center, two rookies protecting his blindside, and at times with a third or fourth string running back.

No one – not even Manning – could have led the Patriots to 10 wins under those circumstances. In all likelihood, with any other quarterback, the Patriots season would have been similar to the Philadelphia Eagles, who, led by all-pro QB Donovan McNabb, buckled under adversity and finished in last place, at 6-10. Without #12, the Patriots might not have made it to six wins. No other player in the NFL was that instrumental in their team’s success, so how could Brady have finished only 3rd in the balloting? I move to recount all votes, especially Florida.

On second thought, let’s forget the recount. Tom Brady already has two MVP awards, of the Super Bowl variety.

****

Divisional Playoff Picks

In an attempt to avoid further embarrassment, I’ll make these brief.

Carolina over Chicago. The Bears defense gave them a 10-0 lead the first time these teams played and they sat on it all day. An improved Carolina team won’t let that happen again, and the warm winter in Chicago helps the Panthers.

Seattle over Washington. 120 yards of total offense. 42 yards passing. Bill Walton might describe the Skins as “the worst team in the hiiiistory of the NFL playoffs. Their offense is just horrrrrible.”

Indianapolis over Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh’s pass rush isn’t good enough to bother Manning on the carpet.

Denver over New England. There is absolutely no way whatsoever at all that the Patriots can win this game. Period. No chance, no shot, no how and no way. They shouldn’t even play it. It’s over. The Broncos have already won. Know what I mean?

The Original Vince Young

Now that Vince Young has declared for the NFL draft, the inevitable Mel Kiper Jr. superlatives and player comparisons will commence. Is Young a bigger Michael Vick? Is he a stronger and faster Steve Young? In the words of Ronnie Lott, is he simply the greatest college quarterback we have ever seen? Or, is he like nothing we have ever seen before (as Keith Jackson and Dan Fouts opined repeatedly at the Rose Bowl). After all, Young has been anointed the quarterback of the 21st century, representing a new, sui generis breed of stronger, faster, and more versatile signal-caller.

But if we’ve never witnessed anything like Vince Young before, why does he remind me so much of a quarterback old enough to be his father? This star was tall and athletic, could shed NFL linebackers with strength or hurdle them with unparalleled athletic brilliance. He was a dual-threat, who could launch an 80 yard touchdown pass, or run 50 yards to the house. Just who am I referring to?

Randall Cunningham.

That’s right, Randall Cunningham, that antediluvian star who has been overlooked in seemingly every discussion about successful running quarterbacks, even though he’s the NFL’s all-time leading rusher at the position.

Cunningham, like Vince Young, was a multidimensional QB, capable of devastating a defense with deep passes or with his scrambling ability. Young is 6-5, 233 pounds – exceptionally large for his position. But Cunningham was big for his era, standing 6-4 and weighing 215 pounds, which in those days was more like, well, 6-5 and 233. (Everyone in the NFL was significantly smaller then: the Eagles didn’t even have an offensive lineman over 290 pounds on their entire roster - the Longhorn’s smallest starting lineman this year was 305. Linebackers weighed 230 instead of 260. Running backs were “well built” at 210 instead of “undersized.”) Relatively speaking, Vince Young is built in a Randall Cunningham mold.

Then there are the legs. Vince now owns two of the top three rushing performances in bowl history by a quarterback (his last two Rose Bowls), but Cunningham was just as prolific at the next level. From 1986-1989 Randall racked up 2,290 yards and 18 touchdowns on the ground. Six times in his career he ran for over 500 yards in a season (in only eight healthy seasons). By comparison, one of the great scramblers in NFL history, Steve Young, only accomplished the feat once. Then came 1990, when Cunningham ran for an amazing 942 yards – more than Michael Vick has ever produced in a season – the second highest total in NFL history for a quarterback.

Through the air, Cunningham was just as good. In that 1990 season he threw almost 3,500 yards and finished second in the league with 30 touchdown passes. Between a brief retirement and injuries, Cunningham was limited to only eight years where he played ten or more games. But in the final seven of those seasons he averaged over 3,300 yards and almost 24 touchdowns per season, culminating in a magical 1997 in Minnesota, when Cunningham led the league with a passer rating of 106.0 while throwing for 34 TDs and 3,704 yards. No wonder his rushing accomplishments have been disregarded.

We all saw what Vince Young could do with his arm in the Rose Bowl, throwing for 267, becoming the first player in NCAA history with 1,000 yards rushing and 3,000 yards passing in a season. Sounds like a Randall Cunningham stat-line.

What about Vince’s strength? He routinely discards would-be tacklers with nonchalance. Cunningham used to perform the same feat – often spinning away from a blitzer – with the exact same graceful pirouette that Young uses. The most memorable example was in a 1990 game against Buffalo when Cunningham effortlessly shed hall of famer Bruce Smith and threw a career long 95 yard touchdown pass.

Author Chuck Klosterman has also observed the glaring similarities between Young and Cunningham, and noted the following in an ESPN.com contribution this week:

“It seems intellectually insane to compare Vince Young to Steve Young instead of to Randall Cunningham. When I recall Cunningham at his absolute best (i.e., that Monday night game against the Giants in '88, when Carl Banks couldn't knock him down with a ball peen hammer), it immediately makes me think about Vince Young in the Rose Bowl. Steve Young was a more effective quarterback than Cunningham, but Cunningham was more dangerous and harder to contain; this is what makes Randall and Vince alike. And this comparison is specific: Young does not seem like Michael Vick or Steve McNair. He only resembles Cunningham.”

The resemblance is uncanny. Yet Vince Young is a tall, strong, athletic right-handed quarterback who can beat teams with his passing and his rushing…but no one has ever seen anything like him? Either everyone has forgotten how good Cunningham could be – and thus is afraid to make the comparison with Young – or they have simply forgotten Randall altogether.

If Cunningham’s accomplishments are any indication, Young should have a successful NFL tenor as both a passer and runner.

Hopefully, history won’t forget Vince.

Hoop *Pipe* Dreams

I typically reserve my basketball rants until all-star weekend, but the hot story of the NBA’s first trimester is simply too baffling not to address…

The Detroit Pistons, with 54 victories in each of the past two seasons, are already being heralded as one of the greatest teams in hardwood history, and have become a popular choice to win 70 games. 70! “Sportscenter” is running a nightly comparison to the 96’ Bulls, complete with stats and records after each game.

Oh by the way, the Pistons have played a whopping total of 31 games this year.

Perhaps magazines and newspapers should start running hypothetical tournaments where Detroit plays other great historical teams and fans vote on the winner. This way, Detroit can join USC as the “greatest team of all-time…who wasn’t even the greatest team of the year.”

A 70-win season has been accomplished once in the 60 year history of the NBA, by the aforementioned 1996 Chicago Bulls, who were led by Michael Jordan, Scottie Pippen, and Phil Jackson. The Bulls had the greatest rebounder of all-time in Dennis Rodman, the 6th man of the year (Toni Kukoc), the 3-point champion (Steve Kerr), and perhaps most amazingly, an unprecedented three players on the All-Defensive 1st team.

Conversely, the Pistons entire roster has amassed four career all-star appearances. They barely escaped the Eastern Conference finals a year ago against a hobbling Miami Heat team. Their division is greatly improved – Milwaukee, Cleveland and Indiana look like playoff locks. And if Larry Brown is widely considered one of the greatest coaches in NBA history, how could recently fired Flip Saunders take the same roster and win 16 more games?

Hopefully, after losing to the .500 Utah Jazz last night for the second time – Detroit’s fifth defeat of the year – everyone will let go of this ridiculous notion of a Piston 70-win season.

If that didn’t do it, a sound defeat next Thursday to the NBA’s best team, San Antonio, should permanently dispel the idea.

Future, non-Detroit NBA topics: Just how good is Steve Nash? NBA All-Star picks, mid-season awards

NFL Wild Card Predictions

The pigskin playoffs have arrived, and unlike college football we actually have the pleasure of watching a tournament to determine a champion. The annual opening round bonanza is this weekend, so on with the prognostications…

Washington (10-6) @ Tampa Bay (11-5) Saturday, 4.30 on ABC

I’ve scratched my head all year trying to figure out how these two teams continue to win. The Redskins stole three games to start the season (Chicago 9-7, Dallas 14-13, and Seattle in OT 20-17), fell apart, and then played a series of losing teams to rip off five wins and make the playoffs. Mark Brunell hasn’t surpassed the 200 yard mark since November 13 (against the Buccaneers), and was a miserable 9-25 last week against a weak Eagles team. Tampa Bay beat only four teams with winning records, but they closed well, with Chris Simms looking stronger and the Cadillac fresh from his mid-season tune-up. Simms had his best game against Washington in week 10, with 279 yards, 3 TDs, and led the game winning drive in the final minute. Home field and the quarterback edge…

PICK: Tampa Bay

Jacksonville (12-4) @ New England (10-6) Saturday, 8.00 on ABC

Does anyone else find it utterly bizarre that Jacksonville has two more wins than the Patriots and has to travel to Foxboro? Apparently, 12 win seasons are rewarded by playing the two-time defending Super Bowl champions in their backyard. Nonetheless, the Jaguars haven’t defeated a winning team since October 16, but that win was against a reeling Pittsburgh team led by the incomparable Tommy Maddox. With Byron Leftwich injured, the Jags snuck by San Francisco (10-9), Cleveland (20-14), and Arizona (24-17). Now they must play on football’s new “frozen tundra,” against a quarterback who has never lost a game with a kickoff temperature under 40 degrees, and is perfect in the postseason. The Patriots haven’t lost a playoff game in Foxboro since 1978, and Leftwich will be playing for the first time in two months. New England is also coached by a strange fellow in a hooded sweatshirt who goes by Belichick. I’m going way out on a limb…

PICK: New England

Carolina (11-5) @ New York Giants (11-5) Sunday, 1.00 on FOX

These might be the two best teams in the NFC, and unfortunately they must meet in the first round because of Tampa Bay’s tiebreaker over Carolina. This will be the Giants’ tenth game at the Meadowlands this year, where they are an impressive 8-1. The Panthers have lost three of their last six, and DeShaun Foster averaged 52 yards on the ground in those defeats. In fact, Foster’s only two 100-yard games came against a porous Atlanta rush defense. Even with without linebacker Antonio Pierce, New York should still be able stop Foster, and force Jake Delhomme to beat them - those are words Panther fans never want to hear. Perhaps Tom Coughlin can also realize the way to stop Carolina’s passing game is to double-team Steve Smith; Carolina’s second leading receiver is senior-citizen Ricky Proehl, who finished with only 441 yards. On the other side of the ball, a steady balance of Eli Manning and Tiki Barber is too much for Julius Peppers to single-handedly stop. The Giants have home-field, the quarterback edge, the running back edge, the coaching edge, and the league’s vested interest…

PICK: New York

Pittsburgh (11-5) @ Cincinnati (11-5) Sunday 4.30 on CBS

They saved the best game for last. Willie Parker is coming off back-to-back 100-yard performances, and Jerome Bettis rumbled for three touchdowns last week. The Bengals rank 24th in rush defense efficiency according to football outsiders (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef.php) and have no answer for Pittsburgh on the ground. Their best hope is that Carson Palmer and Chad Johnson can outpace the Steelers and force Ben Roethlisberger to throw more than 25 times. In the first meeting between the teams, Big Ben threw only 14 times, and Pittsburgh won 27-13. He slung it 41 times in the rematch and the Bengals won 38-31. With that said, consider the following: Is this Pittsburgh team better than last year’s team? No. Is Cincinnati better than the Jets of 04? Absolutely. Pittsburgh narrowly edged the Jets a year ago at home. If my math is correct, the transitive property indicates Marvin Lewis’ club should be OK…

PICK: Cincinnati

A Bittersweet Texas Symphony

Last night Texas shocked USC in the greatest BCS game – maybe the greatest bowl game – of all-time. And with everyone caught up in the “Vinsanity,” I can’t stop thinking of how different the season would have been with a playoff. Yes, a playoff – that dirty two syllable term that college football ignores like an imprisoned relative. A playoff is one of those crazy tournaments where the players determine who the best team is, opposed to a panel of so-called experts and computers programmed by said experts.

Three years ago I lamented college football’s “National Championship Game,” after Ohio State made a mockery of a playoff-less system by scheduling weak opponents and narrowly defeating them in the ugliest of “win-ugly” games. But everyone was happy, caught up in the euphoria of a shocking and controversial double-overtime Buckeye victory, and thus the BCS was declared a temporary success.

Another 34 game-win streak later (Miami’s was snapped at 34 in 2003), college football presidents and athletic directors are patting themselves on their collective backs after their BCS system yielded another “successful” result. The only two perfect teams met in a classic and thrilling championship game, with a “clear” champion determined at the end of the night (or early in the morning for those on the east coast). Again, the BCS is hailed a success.

But how accurate can any format be that doesn’t actually play games to determine who the best team is? “Surely you jest,” you say to me, “Texas was 13-0, and clearly the top team.” Really? Well, if you’re talking about the best team on paper, the most qualified, the best in the computers, worthy of the #1 seed in any tournament, by record or performance, then yes, they were clearly best. Unfortunately, someone needs to say it: That’s not how competition works. If championships were simply handed to “best team on paper,” or “team with best record,” then numerous major American champions would have never been.

Let’s examine the last 10 seasons in the other major sports (NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, College Basketball), and see what title games and champions would never have existed with a BCS type system if teams were seeded by record.

In the last 10 NFL seasons, the top teams in each conference have never met in the Super Bowl. Nine times in those ten seasons one of the top teams made the title game. Hockey has seen just four top seeds in the last decade even make the finals. The most celebrated American tournament, March Madness, has featured merely two #1 vs. #2 title games in 10 years. Even baseball – a sport supposedly dominated by a handful of big-market spenders – has had just seven instances in ten years of a top seed in either league reaching the World Series, and only twice in that span has the league’s best record gone on to win it all (fittingly, the Yankees of 98’ and 99’).

In total, only 16 times in the last decade has the #1 overall seed won the championship in the other major sports. That’s less than one-third of the time, not including last night, when the perceived #1 lost again.

Which leads us full circle back to Ohio State, who was clearly a better team than Texas when they met in September. However, OSU decided to mysteriously play certain reserves – most notably backup quarterback Justin Zwick over early Heisman Trophy candidate Troy Smith – and ended up losing to Vince Young in the final minutes in a game they should have won going away. For those who don’t remember, Vince Young was held to 76 yards on 20 carries (with only 34 yards after the first quarter) and intercepted twice by A.J. Hawk and company. The electrifying Ted Ginn Jr. touched the ball all of four times, compared to the ten plays run for him in the Fiesta Bowl, where he racked up 240 yards and two touchdowns. Furthermore, anyone who saw Ohio State’s 600-plus yard explosion and masterful defensive display against Notre Dame – a team that lost to USC on the final play – can’t honestly say the Buckeyes couldn’t beat Texas in a “championship game.”

The simple fact that this is even debatable reveals how incomplete the system is. No one contests whether Villanova would have beaten Georgetown or if NC State had a shot against Houston or if the Patriots could beat the Rams for the title, because, thankfully, we know what happened. In those sports, they decide their champion by playing, not by perceiving. Until college football does that, all of its seasons will be imperfect.

So congratulations to Texas, Vince Young and Mack Brown. They earned a “national title,” and put on a brilliant show in a classic game. Unfortunately, they distracted school presidents for a few more years from the glaring flaw holding back college football, and enabled the BCS mockery, now regarded as a success, to continue.

Later in the week: College football playoff proposal, and NFL thoughts about the MVP and playoffs.