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"Mavens are Information specialists...once they figure out how to get that great deal, they want to tell you about it too." - Malcolm Gladwell, on the "Market Maven," from his book "The Tipping Point"

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Thursday, January 05, 2006

A Bittersweet Texas Symphony

Last night Texas shocked USC in the greatest BCS game – maybe the greatest bowl game – of all-time. And with everyone caught up in the “Vinsanity,” I can’t stop thinking of how different the season would have been with a playoff. Yes, a playoff – that dirty two syllable term that college football ignores like an imprisoned relative. A playoff is one of those crazy tournaments where the players determine who the best team is, opposed to a panel of so-called experts and computers programmed by said experts.

Three years ago I lamented college football’s “National Championship Game,” after Ohio State made a mockery of a playoff-less system by scheduling weak opponents and narrowly defeating them in the ugliest of “win-ugly” games. But everyone was happy, caught up in the euphoria of a shocking and controversial double-overtime Buckeye victory, and thus the BCS was declared a temporary success.

Another 34 game-win streak later (Miami’s was snapped at 34 in 2003), college football presidents and athletic directors are patting themselves on their collective backs after their BCS system yielded another “successful” result. The only two perfect teams met in a classic and thrilling championship game, with a “clear” champion determined at the end of the night (or early in the morning for those on the east coast). Again, the BCS is hailed a success.

But how accurate can any format be that doesn’t actually play games to determine who the best team is? “Surely you jest,” you say to me, “Texas was 13-0, and clearly the top team.” Really? Well, if you’re talking about the best team on paper, the most qualified, the best in the computers, worthy of the #1 seed in any tournament, by record or performance, then yes, they were clearly best. Unfortunately, someone needs to say it: That’s not how competition works. If championships were simply handed to “best team on paper,” or “team with best record,” then numerous major American champions would have never been.

Let’s examine the last 10 seasons in the other major sports (NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, College Basketball), and see what title games and champions would never have existed with a BCS type system if teams were seeded by record.

In the last 10 NFL seasons, the top teams in each conference have never met in the Super Bowl. Nine times in those ten seasons one of the top teams made the title game. Hockey has seen just four top seeds in the last decade even make the finals. The most celebrated American tournament, March Madness, has featured merely two #1 vs. #2 title games in 10 years. Even baseball – a sport supposedly dominated by a handful of big-market spenders – has had just seven instances in ten years of a top seed in either league reaching the World Series, and only twice in that span has the league’s best record gone on to win it all (fittingly, the Yankees of 98’ and 99’).

In total, only 16 times in the last decade has the #1 overall seed won the championship in the other major sports. That’s less than one-third of the time, not including last night, when the perceived #1 lost again.

Which leads us full circle back to Ohio State, who was clearly a better team than Texas when they met in September. However, OSU decided to mysteriously play certain reserves – most notably backup quarterback Justin Zwick over early Heisman Trophy candidate Troy Smith – and ended up losing to Vince Young in the final minutes in a game they should have won going away. For those who don’t remember, Vince Young was held to 76 yards on 20 carries (with only 34 yards after the first quarter) and intercepted twice by A.J. Hawk and company. The electrifying Ted Ginn Jr. touched the ball all of four times, compared to the ten plays run for him in the Fiesta Bowl, where he racked up 240 yards and two touchdowns. Furthermore, anyone who saw Ohio State’s 600-plus yard explosion and masterful defensive display against Notre Dame – a team that lost to USC on the final play – can’t honestly say the Buckeyes couldn’t beat Texas in a “championship game.”

The simple fact that this is even debatable reveals how incomplete the system is. No one contests whether Villanova would have beaten Georgetown or if NC State had a shot against Houston or if the Patriots could beat the Rams for the title, because, thankfully, we know what happened. In those sports, they decide their champion by playing, not by perceiving. Until college football does that, all of its seasons will be imperfect.

So congratulations to Texas, Vince Young and Mack Brown. They earned a “national title,” and put on a brilliant show in a classic game. Unfortunately, they distracted school presidents for a few more years from the glaring flaw holding back college football, and enabled the BCS mockery, now regarded as a success, to continue.

Later in the week: College football playoff proposal, and NFL thoughts about the MVP and playoffs.

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