In the Shadow of Steroids

The following is part I of a two part series on steroids in baseball.

While performance-enhancing drugs are dominating the headlines in track and field and cycling, the cloud of baseball’s steroid controversy is finally dissipating. And with no one projected to hit 65 or 70 home runs this summer, baseball purists are celebrating with peanuts and cracker jacks as power numbers reassume their traditional meaning: 500 home runs, for a natural player, is still impressive. A 50 home run season is again a rare feat.

Steroids have seemingly been discussed more than the players themselves, and lost in the controversy is the great players of this generation who were clean. Who are the greatest natural players from baseball’s steroid-era? To celebrate the accomplishments of these athletes, we need to weed out the users and potential users from the clean - or at least likely to be clean - players.
We know the following about drug use in baseball:

*The steroid-era began, in all likelihood, in the mid-80s in the bay area with Jose Canseco (Canseco chronicles this in his book). We know Jose was on steroids, and won the 1988 MVP with a needle in his locker. Almost everything Canseco wrote about has been substantiated, unless you believe that Rafael Palmeiro tested positive from a vitamin shot.

*We know, thanks to the testimony of ex-players, that steroid use was prevalent before baseball’s strike in 1994. And we know juicing was widespread after the strike, middle-infielders turned into Babe Ruth and first basemen and outfielders looked like NFL linebackers.

*We know that steroid use has statistically revealing patterns: huge deviating spikes in player performance, a higher frequency of injury, and the ability to perform like an all-star after the 35th birthday. In fact, from World War II to1985, only twelve players with 40 homer seasons increased their total from the year before by more 20 HRs. Rico Petrocelli had the largest increase, skyrocketing from 12 homers to 40 home runs in 1969. There have only been a handful of players ever to have a large increase in home runs in the middle of their career (let alone after the age of 30).

We also know a handful of players who have directly or indirectly been linked to steroid use. The mass-media seems to ignore these players, and chooses to lump all of them into one player and call him Barry Bonds.

*The Official (and Unofficial) Steroid Users*

Barry Bonds - One Word: Bay Area Laboratory Co-operative.

Jose Canseco - Admitted use.

Mark McGwire - "I’m not here to talk about the past." Unfortunately Mark, I am.

Gary Sheffield - Officially on the BALCO "income" sheet.

Jason Giambi - According to reported Grand Jury testimony, used steroids and Human Growth Hormone. No one noticed though (before and after).

Ken Caminiti - Admitted use.

Sammy Sosa - Essentially unanimously guilty in the court of public opinion. Does anyone believe Sosa naturally hit 243 home runs in four years?

Rafael Palmeiro - "I have never used steroids, period."

*In All Likelihood Used Steroids*

Benito Santiago - linked to the BALCO scandal.

Ivan Rodriguez - Impicated by Canseco, whohas yet to be proven wrong, I-Rod cannot be safely put on the "natural team." Ivan was a huge, 5-9, 220 pound tank in Texas. He is currently listed at 190 lbs., looking noticably leaner, and mysteriosly has only 9 home runs.

Juan Gonzalez - Juan was always labeled as a genuinely huge guy, primarily because he whipped the bat around in his swing like it was a toothpick. Listed at a very natural 6-3, 210 (now 220), Gonzalez, was also relatively consistent before bowing off at the age of 32, BEFORE baseball’s steroid testing was administered. This is incredible statistical evidence that he was natural. Here’s the problem with Juan - he played on a team in Texas known in circles for being all juicers (thanks to Canseco’s arrival). Along with Ivan Rodriguez, Juan was listed by Canseco as players he PERSONALLY injected. Another source recently claimed he was involved with supplying Juan steroids in Texas as well.

Jeff Bagwell - The not-so natural statistcal trend: His first three years (a good amount of time), he hit 15, 18, and 20 Homers. Then in 1994, Bagwell hit 39 homers in just 110 games. That’s on pace for 57 home runs, which eclipses even Brady Anderson’ legendary jump in 1996 from 16 to 50! He was also a twig as a rookie and was one of the genuine "huge guys" during his career.

Larry Walker - Here’s Walker in 1990. Walker hit 19-23 HRs per year until, of all years, 1995. That season he belted 36, then two years later hit 49 while stealing 33 bases!!! Remember, in the history of baseball, such a jump in the middle of one’s career is almost unprecedented. And he did it all while looking like an NFL linebacker (Larry is now listed at 6-3 235), even though he used to be listed at 215). Granted, Walker played in Coors field, which inflates his offensive numbers, but maybe the number inflation is reason alone to keep him off the list of best natural players.

Miguel Tejada - Tejada is in the Rickey Henderson camp of suspicion-by-association. He played in Oakland, and then in Baltimore with Palmeiro and Sosa. A few years ago he was 170 lb. old-school shortstop. The he morphed into a 5-9, 213 pound TANK. That’s bigger than a lot of NFL running backs. How long until Tejada’s name pops up in some, leaked, investigative document? Rafael Palmeiro did say he received his "vitamins" from Tejada.

Luis Gonzalez - You know what’s a red flag? Never hitting more than 31 home runs and then suddenly clubbing 57. Then hitting 28 the following year. That's know as the "Brady Anderson special," and there is very, very little historical precedent for anything even remotely similar happening in the pre-steroid history of baseball (even Maris went from 39-61). Except Luis was 33 years young - the age when players used to wash up. Luis was listed at 180. Then he bulked up to changing his name. Does anyone in Cleveland, Baltimore or Chicago think there is a good chance Belle didn’t use hi-tech vitamins?

*Sizeable Probability of Steroid Use*

Greg Vaughn - I’m going to take the easy road and say the 6-0, 206 pound house of a man can’t be put in the safe category. He didn’t hit more than 30 home runs until 1996 when he hit 41. Then, in San Diego, playing with Ken Caminiti, he belted 50 in 1998 at 32. Only Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa, and Babe Ruth ever hit more home runs at 32.

Albert Pujols - His body is natural looking enough, and he has produced consistently before and after baseball implemented a drug-testing program that he seems natural. However, Chris Mihlfeld was named in the Jason Grimsley report. Mihlfeld happens to be Pujol’s trainer.

Andres Galarraga - Hit between 29 and 31 homers until 1996 (including time in the thin air of Colorado) and then belted 47 at the age of 35 - Gasp! Between 1950 and 1985 ("natural era") no other player had such a jump at such an age while hitting more than 40 homers. We can’t hold Barry Bonds and others to "how are they doing that at this age" standards and turn the other cheek because Galarraga hit 47 and not 74. Is it me, or is this man humongous?

Brady Anderson - Two words: Brady Anderson. Home runs in 1996: 50. Home runs in the other 14 years of his career combined: 160. in 1996. His 34 home run jump in 1996 is the largest in history after playing at least five seasons.

Rickey Henderson - The toughest call on the list. He played with the bash brothers, the embassador of steroids in the major leagues. And people forget, because he was a base stealer and lead off hitter, that he had muscles bulging out of his uniform and the legs of a sprinter. In 1994, a year after Jose Canseco left, Henderon’s homerun totals plummeted from 21 to 6. Rickey wouldn’t hit more than 9 home runs until he went back to Oakland in 1998 and played with the new bash brother, Jason Giambi. What about his speed? From 1985-1993 Rickey averaged about a stolen base every 2 games, but the number was steadily declining, and Rickey missed more time because of injury. The old man wouldn’t steal more than 45 bases for the rest of his career, except for one season at the age of THIRTY NINE, in, you guessed it, Oakland, playing with Jason Giambi. Rickey is the toughest call, because he wasn’t a huge slugger, and he was a lean muscular player even before Canseco arrived. But he did weigh 195 pounds at 5-10, which is a lot, especially for the 80s when weight training wasn’t as prominent. Note the visual changes: . Finally, there is what Rickey did at 39, and then the following year at FORTY in New York - hitting .315, with 12 homers in just 121 games, and stealing 37 bases. We can’t say some players are juicing because of was they did post 35 and then ignore others just because they weren’t home run hitters.

Currently, we’ve eliminated 21 of the best players of this generation. So, who were the best natural players of the steroids era?

*Slight Possibility of Steroid Use, But Safe*

Manny Ramirez - Visually, Manny was a big muscular guy when he was a baby. In Cleveland, his look didn’t really change that much, and if anything in the last 3 years he has grown much fatter(which coincides with his lackadaisical personality). Statistically, he has been the beacon of consistency - if there is a big guy who is a power hitter from this generation who the evidence points towards being clean, it’s Manny. Interestingly, Manny *was* listed at 190 lbs, and he is currently listed at 200 lbs. That’s 10 pounds of celebration weight he has yet to lose after the 2004 World Series.

Carlos Delgado - Delgado wasn't actually that muscular, considering his large frame. Furthermore, Delgado was also consistent statistically - hitting between 30 and 44 home runs for the last 10 seasons.

Fred McGriff - Extremely consistent throughout his entire career. He not alone has a natural looking body but at times looks quite small for a power hitter.

Jeff Kent - This is a difficult call - Kent is a bulky 210 pounds - and he played in the Bay Area (always a red flag). Sure Kent put on 15-20 lbs., hit 37 home runs as a 34 year old second baseman, and survived a Barry Bonds dugout slam, but statistically he’s been amazingly consistent throughout his career. Kent hit 21 home runs as a thinner 25 year old in 1993 and has been between 20 and 33 homers in 9 of his last 10 healthy seasons - enough to convince me he’s most likely clean.

Jim Thome - He’s been pretty consistent in his career. Thome is listed at a monstrous 6-4, 245. He looked like a different PERSON as a rookie compared to his studly 245 lb days. But what stands out? He’s just fat - he doesn’t look unnatural or like a juicer - he’s simply quite fat. Think a post-steroid Jason Giambi. I think Thome falls on the natural side of this argument.

Mike Piazza - What was I thinking suggesting

Todd Helton - He was a consistent hitter who is tailing off in his early thirties - both natural patterns. Helton also has the body of an athlete from the 40s or 50s.

Edgar Martinez - Very consistent statistically, wasn’t unnatrual looking or huge, and plenty fat. Pretty safe for a power-hitting DH.

David Ortiz - Someone recently asked me if I thought Papi was on juice. Was Babe Ruth on steroids? He is simply a big fat guy with a heavy upper body and a great swing. He runs in short little un-athletic steps and looks absolutely nothing like a muscular steroid user, despite his largeness. It’s easier to believe Ortiz has injected donuts into his body than testosterone.

Nomar Garciaparra - There are those in Boston who think he juiced. Nomar went from twig-man to muscle-man. He clearly gained a substantial amount of muscle. But in doing so he gained quite a bit of fat, which would be normal for a natural "bulk." His body broke down from injuries, perhaps from steroid use, but most likely from the added weight straining his delicate joints. He is playing well in Los Angeles and his power remains comparable, which are all signs that his power came from that sweet compact swing, and not a needle in his locker.

Frank Thomas - he’s listed at 275. He was listed at 257. Therefore, unless he tapped the magic muscle well in college, he was most likely clean. He was called the big hurt when he was called up as a gigantic 6-5, 240 pound rookie. If anything he has added some "Shaq-weight" as he aged.

*Unlikely Use of Steroids*

Ken Griffey Jr.
The Natural Barry Bonds (86-98) - He played a full, hall-of-fame carrer before building a guest house at BALCO.
Alex Rodriguez - this is what he looked like hitting 52 and 57 homers. A-Rod was truly a remarkable talent before he signed with New York and was moved to third base.
Derek Jeter
Cal Ripken
Vlad Guerrero
Ichiro
Kirby Puckett
Tony Gwynn
Wade Boggs
Roberto Alomar
John Olerud
Alfonso Soriano
Paul Molitor
Kenny Lofton
Craig Biggio

Part II: Celebrating the Best Natural Players of the Steroid Era