2007 NBA Draft Review

It's time for my annual assessment of the NBA draft. Dolling out team draft grades before these athletes ever play a game is like grading students before the exam. With that said, the Celtics obviously receive an “F” for their draft actions. At this point, all the pundits can do is attempt to forecast who will be good and who will be bad. Interestingly, there have been few top 10 picks in the history of football or basketball who have been immediately regarded as total busts, and yet only the minority turn out to be great players. Is it really that difficult to call out a team for taking Trajan Langdon in the lottery?

Without further ado, my breakdown of the 2007 draft class:

All-Stars

Kevin Durant – One of the greatest college basketball players of all-time...as a freshman. He is often compared to Tracy McGrady, but he's a legit 6-10 (and maybe growing) with the wingspan of an eagle. His jump shot is off the charts, he can drive, pass, rebound, and even defend. Oh, and he's 18 years old. He's the rookie of the year, and could be an all-time great.

Greg Oden – Here's what I know about Oden: he will rebound and block shots. He also has a commanding floor presence which makes the players around him better. However, it's hard for me to envisage him being a dominant offensive center in the mold of Shaq, Hakeem, or David Robinson. This doesn't preclude him from being a hall-of-fame player, or winning championships, but it does mean he will have to be a great rebounder, defender, passer and leader.

Al Horford – He's probably the biggest threat to Durant for ROY, and could ultimately be the Dwyane Wade of this draft class. He just turned 21, is a legit 6-10, an incredible athlete who blocks shots and rebounds well. He is often compared to Horace Grant, but he could be much better on the offensive end. Between his strength, quickness, footwork, and touch around the basket, he is already a good offensive player. If he adds a face-up mid-range shot he will be a 20-10 guy.

Corey Brewer – Like Horford, Brewer just turned 21, and like his Florida teammate, he has improved considerably in each of his 3 seasons at Florida, culminating with a surprising outside shooting clinic in the Final Four. He's 6-9, long, incredibly athletic, and already a great defender. If he adds some strength, which should come with age, and shoots like he did in the tournament, he can average 18 a night to go along with his incredible defense.

Julian Wright – He could be the steal of this draft. Everyone forgets that he was projected as a top 4 pick as recently as December. Wright will be an All-star because he can now comfortably play the small forward; he's quick, incredibly athletic, can block shots, drive, and is a great passer. He added a face-up jumper (which still needs work), but he just turned twenty. Great pick by New Orleans.

Mike Conley Jr. - Conley has Isiah Thomas' freakish quickness and amazing explosion off the dribble. He has Tony Parker's floater to score in the paint, has good court vision, great hands, and is a winner. His jump shot is the big question mark. If it's good, he could be an 18-8 type player (similar to Parker). If he can't develop his shot, he could a better version of T.J. Ford. Conley is particularly difficult to project because he left school about two years ahead of schedule thanks to the national exposure of this past season.

Quality Starters

Jeff Green – I wasn't sold on Green for a long time. I couldn't figure out how he was going to score in the NBA, what position he would play, and the fact that incredibly unselfish players who aren't point guards have problems becoming NBA stars. But then I realized Green has intangible qualities that should ensure a solid career: he is a great clutch player, and has a great “feel” for the game – perhaps a poor-man's Lamar Odom with better character.

Yi Jianlian – Judging by the Internet highlights of Yi, he is a 7 foot small forward with good athleticism and a nice touch around the rim. Defensively, he is going to be a mess; he can't guard big men, and he can't guard wing players. He also seems a little soft; there could be a big learning curve here. Overall, there seems to be the physical tools to make a good NBA player, although I don't see a superstar.

Al Thornton – He has an NBA game and an NBA body. In a strange way, going to the Clippers might allow him to become a solid player.

Quality Role Players

Joakim Noah – Noah can rebound and defend well. Surprisingly, there aren't many 7 footers in the world who fit that description. Similar to P.J. Brown, he will probably add some offensive moves over the years and can be a valuable piece on a winning team.

Sean Williams – One of the best shot blockers I've ever seen. Then again, Etan Thomas and Ken Johnson were great college shot blockers, and they didn't exactly become Walton and Russell. If he can stay in the league and doesn't pull an Eddie Griffin (a big if), Williams can average 13 rebounds and 3 blocks per game.

Sleepers

Marco Belinelli - Admittedly, I know nothing about him. But Don Nelson and the Italian Ray Allen is a recipe for success.

Aaron Afflalo – Has always had an NBA jump shot, and can defend. Detroit is a perfect fit for him.

Alando Tucker – Apparently dominating a major league in college basketball means nothing to NBA scouts. He scores so well, and is so dangerous out of the triple threat position. If he shores up his jump shot, he could score 15 per night, although it might not be in Phoenix.

Marcus Williams – Every year there is an underclassman taken in the second round who becomes a star:

2000 Jr. Michael Redd 43^rd pick.

2001 Jr. Bobby Simmons 42^nd pick. So. Gilbert Arenas 31^st pick.

2002 Jr. Carlos Boozer 35^th pick.

2003 So. Maurice Williams 47^th pick .

2004 there was one underclassman in the 2^nd round, rising star Trevor Ariza (Fr. Taken 44^th).

Being compared to Penny Hardaway and Steve Smith, and having a “silky smooth” game is enough for me to pick Williams as this year's second round underclassman star.

Derrick Byars – SEC player of the year with a big-time jump shot. I can see him becoming the Bobby Simmons of this draft.

Morris Almond – A perfect fit in Utah; Almond is an amazing shooter who could thrive with a good passing team.

Weak

Brandon Wright – I don't like the term “bust,” because Wright will most certainly have an NBA career; he is only 19 and has a 7 foot 5 wingspan. However that alone does not guarantee success (ask Keon Clark). Other than that, Wright has no game. Mentally, he also lacks focus, which is something that will prevent him from becoming a star.

Spencer Hawes - Yes he can shoot, but 6 rebounds a game from a 7-foot center? Hawes needed another 3 years of college.

Thaddeus Young – I hesitate to label him as a bad pick, because apparently he is a prototypical small forward (compared to Paul Pierce), but I'm not sure what category to place him in. He has incredible footwork and quickness, but so did Chris Klack. Part of me thinks he could become another all-star in this draft class, but then again, he will probably take a few years to pan out even if he does become a star.

Daquan Cook – Cook is a decent shooter, but if he were a senior this year he would have been undrafted. Early in the season he showed promise; he was active around the rim, and played more like he was 6-9. However, he was lost in the last 6 weeks of the season as the competition grew stiffer (not a good sign), and moved to the bench. I don't see anything in his game or character to indicate that at 6-5, he will exponentially grow into a great NBA wing player.