Super Bowl XLI 1/2, Reality Check

Nine myths that need to be cleared up before Super Bowl XLI ½ part I kick off Sunday in Indianapolis.

1. The Patriots can't run the ball

This one has been used on ESPN and the NFL network this week.. The Patriots use three running backs: Sammy Morris and Laurence Maroney as a two-headed monster, and Kevin Faulk as a 3rd down back. The three of them are averaging 4.5, 4.8, and 4.7 yards per carry, respectively. They are 8th in the league in rushing and average four fewer yards per contest than the Colts. Not only do the Patriots run the ball better than they have in years, but look for them to hammer the ball at some point after Bob Sanders has committed to the pass.

2. The Colts “manage” the game better
This has been one of the most mind-boggling arguments that has circulated around the media like an airborne virus. Honestly, who concocted this, Greg Easterbrook? For years, knowledgeable football fans have known that Brady has valued game plans and management over statistics, whereas Manning has put his weak defense on the field repeatedly and failed to run in big games (see both playoff losses to New England) when the run was working. Suddenly, because Brady is putting up video-game stats and Manning has the statistics of mere mortals, Manning “manages” games and Brady strikes quickly. Yet the Colts have only had the ball for 7 more minutes than their opponents this year, and the Patriots have dominated the time of possession in seven of eight games, holding a TOP edge by an average of over 8 minutes per game. Furthermore, the Patriots have had 21 drives of over 5 minutes, including 2 drives that lasted longer than 10 minutes. The Colts have had only 13 drives of 5 minutes, and none over 10 minutes. New England also has had 13 drives of 80 yards or more, the Colts just two.

3. The Patriots haven't played a good defense
Many have suggested the Patriots obscene offensive numbers have resulted from the weak defenses they have played. Yet Dallas, San Diego, and Washington were considered pretty stout before they played New England. Many were saying last week that the Patriots had not seen a secondary like Washington's and that their pass attack would finally stall. Dallas has the #6 defense even after the Patriots racked up 448 yards on them.

4. The Colts schedule has been significantly harder
This one is arguably true, as the Patriots have played a number of the worst teams in the league. For my money, the best formulaic ranking in the NFL is Jeff Sagarin's. In Sagarin's rankings, New England has played 3 top-16 teams and two top-10 teams. The Colts have played four top-16 teams and two top-10 teams. The top four opponents of the Patriots are Cleveland (20th), Washington (11), San Diego (7) and Dallas (3). They beat those teams by a combined score of 172-66. The Colts top four opponents are Denver (16), Tampa Bay (12), Tennessee (8) , and Jacksonville (6). They outscored those teams 122-61.

5. The Patriots are “evil”
Even addressing this absurd claim borders on childish. Therefore instead of wasting time and space to use logic and rebut these ridiculous accusations, perhaps the people using the word “evil” to describe a 53 hard working athletes, an obsessive coach, and a revered owner might want to rethink their priorities and check their jealousy at the door.

6. The Colts have a better defense than the Pats
This one literally made me fall over. The Colts have a vastly improved defense. In fact, since Bob Sanders returned last season, they have been solid against the run and frisky against the pass. But it seems irresponsible as a journalist to blindly suggest that the Colts defense has now surpassed a team with one of the best front sevens the NFL has ever seen. Add two solid cornerbacks and Rodney Harrison quarterbacking the defensive backfield again and its difficult to argue the Colts unit is better. Give the Colts credit though; Indianapolis ranks 4th in yards allowed, right behind New England.

7. The Patriots “bought” there team (like the Yankees of the 90s).
This ranks quite high on the unintentional comedy scale. The NFL has a hard salary cap – everyone spends the same amount of money. While were here, it's worth noting that the Yankees teams of the 90s won with a great farm system (Jeter, Rivera, Pettite, Bernie Williams, Ramiro Mendoza, Orlando Hernandez) and shrewd signings (Jimmy Key, David Cone, Tino Martinez, Joe Girardi, Paul O'Neil, Scott Brosius, David Wells). Maybe other teams could not afford to re-sign all of these players, but the Yankees built their success without relying on money.

8. Peyton Manning is better than Tom Brady
For years the argument has gone something like this – Brady's wins or Manning's stats? While I could write 10,000 words on why Brady is better Manning (football is a complex game, after all), there has been a lot of misinformation regarding these two this week, including the aforementioned “game management” myth. The first is that Manning has made his wide receivers what they are today. This is patently absurd; Marvin Harrison was unstoppable when Manning was struggling early in his career. Manning hasn't made Reggie Wayne fast enough to blow people away, tall enough to out jump them, quick enough to become a near unstoppable route-runner, and equipped with a pair of hands that plucks almost anything within reach. Conversely, Tom Brady has literally made the careers of wide receivers that have since moved on to do very little. Outside of Troy Brown and Deion Branch, the list of wideouts who have blossomed at one time or another with Brady and done literally nothing anywhere else is almost painful to read: David Patten, David Givens, Reche Caldwell, Jermaine Wiggins, Jabar Gaffney, Bethel Johnson, Doug Gabriel, Dedric Ward and even Fred Coleman. Most of these players have been complete busts without Tom Brady throwing to them.

Furthermore, Brady won two Super Bowl MVP's without a decent running back (Antowain Smith was never exactly Jim Brown). When Edgerrin James left Indianapolis, he was the NFL's all-time leader in total yards from scrimmage per game. And now that Brady finally has his own assortment of offensive weapons, he is destroying the edge Manning had in statistical production. In fact, their statistics since Brady came into the league are quite comparable. Seasonal averages since 2001:

........................Brady...............Manning
Touchdowns........27.2................31.2
Yards................ 3,691...............4,174
Completion %...... 62.9................65.9

Then of course there are the three Super Bowls Brady has won. Oh, and Brady is 90-26 as a starter, best of all-time. Yet everyone thinks that because the Colts won last year that Manning can suddenly perform big under pressure. The truth is, he's never been as bad as Alex Rodriguez when it mattered, but he's come up short in a lot of key moments. Last year was no exception, as Manning threw 3 TD's and 7 INT's in the playoffs. For his career, his postseason record is 7-6 with 18 TD's and 15 INT's. He has one game-winning driving in the postseason. Brady has 24 game-winning drives since 2001, more than any other quarterback. He is 12-2, with 20 TD's and 9 INT's in the postseason. In his worst playoff performance (3 interceptions), he led a ferocious fourth quarter comeback against San Diego, including engineering a game winning drive – the 5th of his playoff career – against a team many pundits considered unbeatable.

9. The Colts won the Super Bowl and are better this year, therefore they will win
Logically, this is the same as suggesting the Bears would crush the Patriots because of what happened in 1986. Yes, the Colts are better than last year's team, but if one is willing to observe that the Colts are a different team now, why pretend the Patriots aren't different as well? Since neither team is the same as they were during the last meeting, that game and that season has very little to do with what happens on Sunday. Curiously, most people overlook the fact that while Indianapolis has improved, New England has improved more than any team in the league. The offensive line is healthy, Laurence Maroney is a year older, Sammy Morris is phenomenal backup, and they have three new wide receivers you may heard of. Defensively Rodney Harrison, Junior Seau, and Tedy Bruschi will be on the field, along with a healthier Richard Seymour, and pro-bowler Adalius Thomas.

As far as last season's AFC championship game, not one analyst has mentioned the overlooked battle New England had to endure the prior week in San Diego, which completely wore them out. After a cross-country red-eye, a number of Patriots became sick, and in the second half against New England they cramped up and wore down. The Colts won't be so lucky this time around. And while the Colts have improved, it's hard to find the places they improved enough to beat this juggernaut.
Patriots 41, Colts 27.