Follow up: Nash MVP

Some follow up points about Nash and how impressive his run has been.

In the preseason, the oddsmakers set the over/under on Phoenix's win total at 43.5, and that was with Kurt Thomas (who missed the second half of the season). The Suns started 42-17, before Nash injured his back and groin. The Lakers total was set at 41.5, while the Clippers were at 40.5. Some other notable expected wins: Cleveland - 49.5, Detroit 50.5, Denver 50.5, and the Rockets at 53.5.

The point is the preseason expectations for Nash and Kobe weren't that different, and in fact many people thought Nash would struggle without his pick-and-roll partner Stoudemire.

In November, 16 ESPN panelists predicted the MVP winner, and Kobe Bryant had two votes, LeBron James five, and Steve Nash none. Of over 47,000 votes in a "SportsNation" poll predicting the MVP, Nash finished 11th (2.1% of the vote) behind names like Shaq, Wade, Garnett, McGrady, Iverson, and Ron Artest. Kobe Bryant finished second.

It's easy to forget that no one expected any of this, even after last season.

Ending the MVP “Debate”

According to the Arizona Republic, Steve Nash has already been elected the NBA’s Most Valuable Player, which has surprisingly sparked even more MVP "debate." The mass confusion on this topic reached new heights today when ESPN.com’s Bill Simmons declared:

"We just spent three weeks arguing about the 2006 MVP Award, which was the perfect vehicle to separate two groups of people: Those Who Understand Basketball, and Those Who Need To Pull Their Heads Out Of Their Butts."

According to the "Sports Guy" anyone not debating the value of LeBron or Kobe has their head lodged in some not-so-friendly confines. And while Simmons often writes astute and entertaining pieces - the rest of that column included - this statement is the logical equivalent of a green boxing fan claiming Rocky Marciano didn’t punch hard, or a teenager calling the Beatles a horrid band for old fogies. It’s a microcosm of the entire problem with the MVP "debate" in every sport; most people rely on the sexiest big-name star with the bulkiest stats in place of logic and criteria.

Take the most recent major MVP, from the NFL, Shawn Alexander. Sexy name, sexy stats. But, Tom Brady was more valuable as were Peyton Manning and Brian Urlacher. Last fall baseball gave its MVP prize to Alex Rodriguez. He fits the big name, big stats mold. But again, A-Rod wasn’t that valuable (after all, New York won 100 games and titles before him, now they win 100 games and can’t win the pennant). Even in basketball, the MVP can produce some mind-bending results - what else explains how Karl Malone won the 1997 MVP over Michael Jordan other than, "it’s someone else’s turn?"

Which is exactly what has happened this year with Steve Nash: the media has created some "debate" out of a desire to see a new MVP -Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, or the hilariously suggest Elton Brand - and everyone has forgotten how valuable Nash was to begin with.

The Nash Equilibrium

Phoenix before Steve Nash: 29 wins.

Key players on that team: Amare Stoudemire, Shawn Marion, Joe Johnson, Stephon Marbury, Leandro Barbosa

Phoenix with Steve Nash: 62 wins.

Key players on that team: Amare Stoudemire, Shawn Marion, Joe Johnson, Quentin Richardson, Leandro Barbosa

For those keeping score, that 33 game turnaround, with essentially the exact same roster, was the largest in NBA history. Normally an impact as valuable as Nash’s in 2005 goes unnoticed by the pundits (ask Jason Kidd about this) after all Steve is a floppy-haired Canadian soccer player who averaged just 15 points per game. However the turnaround was so stunning, so mesmerizing, that it was simply impossible to ignore (the Suns finished with the best record in the league). Phoenix was 2-5 without Nash last year, and 60-15 with him.

Then Amare Stoudemire had surgery and missed the 2006 season. Joe Johnson and Quentin Richardson left town, and replacement Kurt Thomas missed the second half of the year. That meant the Suns key players this year were: Shawn Marion, Raja Bell, Boris Diaw, Leandro Barbosa, Eddie House, and James Jones. If you’ve never heard of them, don’t worry, most people haven’t either. Bell, Diaw, Barbosa, House and Jones had a combined career scoring average of 30.8 points per game. Thirty!

Has there ever been a weaker collection of talent on a 54-win team than this year’s Suns? Even all-star Shawn Marion can’t create his own offense - he gets most of his points in transition, thanks to Nash, from open 3s, thanks to Nash, and on put-backs (when Nash occasionally misses).

This year they all had career years and the aforementioned quintet doubled their output, scoring over 60 points a night as the Suns led the league in scoring, field goal and 3-point shooting. Even Marion had a career year, setting new marks for scoring and shooting. Tim Thomas was released by the Bulls and couldn’t make an NBA roster. So the Suns picked him up and Nash made Thomas a key player and double-digit scorer (reminiscent of Jim Jackson’s conversion in Phoenix last year). Nash himself was better than ever, leading the league in assists again, scoring a career best 18.8 ppg, while shooting a ridiculous 51.2% from the floor, 43.9% from behind the arc and over 92% at the foul line. That’s 54.8% from two-range for a point guard! The Suns were 54-25 with him, and 0-3 without him.

And your head is where if you voted for Steve Nash?

The Kobe Fallacy

Now Kobe Bryant and Lakers have Nash in a 3-1 hole and many have seen this as some sort of proof that Bryant is actually more valuable than Nash (even though the MVP is a regular season award, and Phoenix won the division while LA finished third). If anything, this playoff turnaround by Los Angeles is proof that Kobe Bryant isn’t the MVP!

Where was this unselfish, balanced team play in the regular season?

Why did Bryant decide to suddenly involve his teammates more while shooting less?

Why did Kobe wait until now to support Lamar Odom, Kwame Brown and Luke Walton instead of lambasting them for their shortcomings?

Bryant jacked up an ungodly 27 shots per game in the regular season, while shooting a pedestrian 45%. Against Phoenix, Kobe has averaged around 19 shot attempts per game. His 4.5 assists per night were the lowest of his career since 1999, but against the Suns Bryant is averaging over six assists per game. Fresher from not having to dribble and shoot constantly, Bryant has also averaged more rebounds while sharing defensive duties on Steve Nash. Amazingly, this team approach has been more effective than playing one-on-five, and the Lakers are 14-4 in their last 18 games. Most importantly, Lamar Odom - Pippen to Bryant’s Jordan - is back.

Odom averaged 17 points and almost 10 rebounds in Miami playing alongside another star guard, Dwyane Wade, and they even won a playoff series. This year in Los Angeles he struggled mightily, wandering off near the 3 point line for weeks at a time, appearing noticeably disgruntled at Kobe Bryant’s selfishness, and struggling to fit in. If you listened to the LA sports-radio you might think Odom was ready to benched, or even worse, go Latrell Sprewell on Kobe. As Simmons, living in LA, said of Odom: "he looked like the most likely candidate in the league to punch a teammate -- namely, Kobe -- in the face."

There was no sense of unity for the Lakers, as Bryant took every last second shot (almost always missing: http://www.82games.com/random12.htm), and looked noticeably peeved at his teammates when they made mistakes (he flailed his arms and cursed out Luke Walton on the court after one loss). The Lakers struggled to stay in the playoff race, and after 68 games were 34-34.

Since then Odom has averaged almost 17 ppg, and is scoring over 20 a night in the Phoenix series. He is averaging 11.5 rebounds per game, over 4 assists while shooting over 50% from the floor. He is controlling the game and proving he is, at the least, a far superior offensive talent to Suns counterpart Shawn Marion. To quote Simmons himself: "there isn't another forward like him -- he can play three positions, shoot 3's, post people up, create shots for other players, run fast breaks and protect the rim, and he's left-handed to boot." He’s an excellent rebounder too, but where has he been all season? Would Michael Jordan ever reduce Scottie Pippen to such mediocrity?

And that’s my biggest gripe about the Kobe for MVP argument - he has made his teammates, and especially Odom, worse for most of the season. He arguably has a better supporting cast than Phoenix - as anyone who has watched this series can clearly see. Isn’t it an MVP’s responsibility to make players better, the way Nash has in Phoenix?

In this series Kobe is suddenly playing masterfully. He is involving Odom and creating for his teammates. He is facilitating Luke Walton’s offense, finding him for open 3s and feeding his post when he’s covered by smaller defenders. In other words, he took a page out of Nash’s book. This is how good the Lakers could have been all year: Odom as a dangerous second banana, Kwame Brown bringing energy and rebounding, and Luke Walton passing out of the post like his first name is Bill. This Suns series doesn’t show what Kobe did during the regular season, it proves what he didn’t do.

The End of the Debate

If there is a legitimate MVP candidate outside of Arizona, it’s either Dirk Nowitzki or LeBron James, not Kobe Bryant.

LeBron is the only all-star on a 50 win team, and has put up a staggering offensive season: 31 points, 7 rebounds and nearly 7 assists a game. Still, James plays in a weaker conference and has a pretty good supporting cast (Ilgauskas, Gooden, Marshall, Damon Jones, Larry Hughes then Flip Murray, and the crazy yet old-school and effective Anderson Varejao).

Dirk is the only all-star on a 60 win team. According to basketball-reference.com, Nowitzki contributed to the most wins of anyone in the NBA this year and was the most efficient player. His defense was improved, he hits clutch shots, and he is practically indefensible. Yet even Dirk has a great team around him, but only had a slightly better win percentage than Phoenix did with Nash (.741 to .684).

Finally, anyone who has watched Steve Nash over the last two seasons can tell how much of a problem his back and hamstring injuries have been against the Lakers. If healthy, he doesn’t commit the two key turnovers in game 4, and he certainly shoots better than 46% from the floor and 38% from downtown. Nash has missed open shots he normally converts with ease. For those who need a course refresher, he shot 52% while averaging 24 points and 11 dimes in last years playoffs.

Nash has not been Nash, and that is the biggest reason Phoenix has struggled. He has had trouble penetrating past Smush Parker, who couldn’t cover a streetlight. When Nash was healthy, the Suns went 42-17. Since Nash’s back and hamstring problems started flaring up in early March, Phoenix is 13-14. Unfortunately, many fans - pundits included - are watching Nash for the first time in the playoffs, and are unaware that he is a shell of himself.


Amidst all the discussion, amongst all the myopic arguments, it seems the voters finally got it right: Steve Nash was the NBA’s Most Valuable Player.

The only real debate is who should finish second.